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  • House prices could fall by staggering 30 per cent in doomsday worst-case scenario

House prices could fall by staggering 30 per cent in doomsday worst-case scenario

Published on November 03, 2022 at 10:22 PM

HOUSE prices could tumble by a staggering 30 per cent in doomsday worst-case scenarios.

Leading mortgage lender Nationwide warned that thanks to soaring interest rates and a looming recession, it could stall Britain’s entire housing market.

House prices could tumble by 30 per cent in a doomsday worst-case scenario, Nationwide has warned

Chris Rhodes, chief finance officer at Nationwide Building Society, said their “worst case” scenario was that house prices would fall by 30 per cent from earlier this year.

But their central scenario was a fall of 8 to 10 per cent.

Savills estates agents predicted a similar 10 per cent drop next year before they climb again in 2024 after the interest rate pain eases.

The number of home sales is predicted to tumble by almost 200,000 to levels now seen since 2011.

The hardest hit groups will be first-time-buyers and buy-to-let landlords who will struggle to manage their mortgages alongside the soaring cost of living.

Cash buyers and those with large amounts of equity in their homes are likely to be less affected – meaning the top end of the market could hold up.

London could see falls of around 2 per cent – less sheltered than the national average.

The wider South, which includes popular coastal locations in Cornwall, Devon and Norfolk, is also likely to be more resilient.

However, house-prices are still expected to grow again between 2024 and 2027 – the average house price will reach £381,578 – marking a £22,290 gain over the five-year period.

Frances McDonald, Savills research analyst, said London and the South East will then potentially be put “back in a position to deliver the strongest house price growth from 2027 onwards”;.

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